Global Ad Spend Heads for $1.34 Trillion as Q4 Budgets Shift to Social and Retail Media

Global ad spend will hit $1.34 trillion in 2026, an 11.9% increase over 2025, according to updated WARC forecasts — with the final quarter's dollars flowing overwhelmingly toward social media, video and search. Social spend alone grew 21.3% in Q3. Yet agency executives say political shocks, from the U.S. midterms to the U.K. budget, could knock confidence during the Christmas run-in.

How healthy is the ad market heading into Q4?

At the holdco level, the picture looks solid. Publicis reported 5% organic growth in Q3, Havas 2.4%, and Omnicom 7.3%; WPP and Dentsu have yet to report. Publicis CEO Arthur Sadoun told analysts he expects the momentum to hold: "We could be close to 5% [organic growth] for the full year, if the macro economy gets better. That's what we're expecting."

"In general, the U.S. ad market backdrop seems to be very supportive at the minute," said Adrien de Saint Hilaure, managing director and head of European media and gaming research at Bank of America.

The U.K.'s quarterly IPA Bellwether survey found 25.6% of marketers raised budgets in Q3 — the third consecutive quarterly increase — with digital video and direct marketing among the chief beneficiaries. In the U.S., Kering CFO Armelle Poulou told analysts the luxury group is leaning in: "We are increasing media investment [and] strengthening communication… in Q4," she said, without providing specifics.

Where is the money actually going?

Six media buyers told Digiday clients are prioritizing video and performance channels in the fight for market share. "In Q4, if it can't be measured, it isn't making the plan," said Sarah Engel, president of January Digital. "Brands are zeroed in on performance and on the dollars they can tie directly to results." That attitude, she said, is driving a torrent of spend toward Meta, TikTok and Amazon — and Meta's ad revenues rose 26% in Q3, per its latest earnings.

Some brands are even protecting social commerce at the expense of other channels. "Some brands are working hardest to protect social commerce, even trimming elsewhere where necessary," Engel said. Ashley Muench, founder of Scène Studios, which works primarily with DTC and apparel brands, said her clients' Q4 ad budgets are up as much as 20% year-on-year, with most of that increase earmarked for social platforms — because more active shoppers mean more retargeting and acquisition opportunities.

Retail media is also climbing, though the trajectory varies by agency. Scott Shamberg, president and CEO of Mile Marker, said clients raised retail media spend 20%-30% going into Q4, funded by pulling budget from linear TV and, to a lesser extent, search. "Retail media is the one that jumps off the charts," he said. But David Dweck, president of GoFish Digital, reported a slowdown: his firm expected Amazon spend to grow 30% year-on-year but has seen increases closer to 7%, following a "soft" Prime Day for some clients and political uncertainty. "We're anticipating lower spend this year than last year," he said.

TV tells the opposite story. "TV is likely to be 5%-7% down year-on-year, particularly in categories such as travel, utilities, telco and leisure," said Alistair MacCallum, chief growth officer at MSQ-owned TodayTomorrow, who added that "digital and platforms continue to thrive" and that "advertiser confidence remains resilient."

What could still go wrong?

The optimism has cracks. A Madison & Wall analysis of Omnicom's results suggested much of its organic growth stems from cost-cutting — shuttering agencies and staff cuts — rather than underlying revenue growth. Omnicom notably offered no Q4 guidance despite solid year-to-date numbers.

In the U.S., buyers are watching the midterms. "Many clients are holding their breath until we know the outcome of the mid-terms," said Wendy Mason, senior director of strategy at Moroch. "With consumer confidence at near record lows, any change in the balance of power that gives people hope that financial relief may be coming is likely to give some consumers the confidence they need to spend as we go into holiday season." MacCallum flagged the U.K. government's upcoming budget and cost-of-living pressures as further risks.

Separately, Nexxen research found nearly 40% of Americans actively avoid news, yet 86% of these "news-avoidant voters" plan to vote in the 2026 midterms, and 41% say creators influence their opinions — a signal for political ad buyers eyeing the 2028 cycle, which will likely outspend this election's record $11.6 billion. For now, performance and retail media carry Q4, but Dweck's warning stands: 2026's final act may hold more than unending social ad spend rises.