Publishers Sell More Subscriptions to Smaller Audiences Ahead of Midterms

The typical publisher worldwide reaches a fifth fewer people per month than in 2019 — yet sells 50% to 85% more subscriptions per quarter to that smaller audience. That counterintuitive benchmark, from INMA researcher-in-residence Greg Piechota, frames how U.S. news publishers are approaching the Nov. 3 midterms: election spikes may be the last reliable moment casual readers arrive on their own.

"Growth depends on attracting and converting casual readers, and that is getting harder," Piechota said. "Social media and search send fewer people to news sites every year. A big news event is one of the few remaining moments when casual readers come to a news brand on their own, so what happens in those weeks matters more than it used to."

In North America, publishers reach a fifth fewer readers than at the 2024 election peak, per INMA's analysis of 3,018 news brands, 79 of them in North America. The 2024 election still moved sales: the typical North American publisher sold 43% more subscriptions than in 2019 and 17% more than in the 2020 election quarter. National and metro publishers grew subscriber bases roughly 10% in 2024, matching the global average. Large regional chains, though, struggled to keep promo-acquired subscribers — contributing to a 16% decline from the early 2024 peak.

What are publishers actually doing?

Reuters saw new subscriptions rise 50% on Monday, driven mainly by U.S. coverage, the Brazil election and its live blog, according to Josh London, head of Reuters Professional. The wire service isn't changing its dynamic paywall, but it is adding a D.C. "war room," expanding its White House, national security and investigative teams, partnering with the USA Today Network on a content bundle and running Ipsos polls. "We expect a similar pattern around the Israel election this week," London said.

The New York Times is going the opposite direction on access: it has dropped its paywall entirely for midterm coverage in its app until results are clear. That's a retention play, not a direct conversion push, a Times spokesperson said.

Politico launched a unified global mobile app Monday, replacing its separate U.S. and Europe apps. "The midterms give us an opportunity to demonstrate why Politico's journalism matters to the people who rely on it for their work," said CCO Cally Baute, adding that the approach will extend to France's 2027 presidential contest. On Nov. 3, five of its top political journalists will provide live analysis on its site, app and YouTube. The context is rough: Politico's audience fell 49.1% year over year in September.

Newer subscription businesses are testing what sticks. The Hill, which launched its Hill Insider subscription this summer and converts more than 75% of trials to paid, has added subscriber-only Decision Desk HQ election tools — polls, local races, prediction models. CNN, which launched All Access last year, has expanded to the U.K. and Canada ahead of the midterms and treats elections as a "major subscription driver," according to a person familiar with its strategy. The Wall Street Journal is using Doppler News AI to track millions of social videos, podcasts and news segments for voter signals traditional polls might miss.

What happens after election night?

That's the question practitioners should ask, and the data offers a cautionary answer. Regional chains already showed that election-promo subscribers churn. "The election is the hook, not the habit," Piechota said. "The work after a political spike should be focused on breadth: onboarding that steers people to other news, sport, lifestyle and newsletters, and the bundled non-news products, such as games."

Elsewhere in the industry, the pressure on traffic keeps compounding. Ten Norwegian media organizations have asked the Oslo District Court to block Meta's new commercial terms before they take effect Nov. 20, while a News/Media Alliance spokesperson said Zuckerberg hadn't responded by the Oct. 26 deadline set in its letter. Vox launched its first app — articles require a paid membership — and The Verge plans one for 2027. Axios of the trend: Daily Mail is running 12 to 15 GEO tests with brands ahead of an AI-visibility product, with one personal finance brand's AI-prompt visibility rising from roughly 50% to nearly 75%.

As AI reshapes how readers encounter information, publishers are betting trusted election coverage gives people a reason to come directly — and the months after Nov. 3 will show whether that bet holds.